UK Capital Market Assumptions and Summary: Quarter 3 2022

We use our market-proven global stochastic asset model each quarter to generate a range of capital market assumptions based on the latest market data.

October Capital Market Assumptions

Download your copy of our Capital Markets Assumptions report now.


Due to market developments, an emergency update was carried out. Please read the below note for an explanation.

Emergency Update

As you will be aware, the UK market has been a roller-coaster ride over the last month.
In the aftermath of the mini-budget, Gilts were more volatile than Bitcoin for a couple
of weeks! We updated several times during our production period and delayed our final
output to the last possible moment.

Nevertheless, at the time we went to press, Boris Johnson had jetted back from
holiday and Britain was facing another leadership election, offering the Conservative
party members polarised economic choices.

Since then, the fundamental uncertainty, of whether to stimulate a slowing economy or
to make controlling debt and inflation the priority has been settled in favour of the
latter. The impact on UK markets has not been dramatic, but it has been decisive and
things have settled at a significantly different level than assumed in our initial October

The size of the effect on the market is larger than the last time we issued an
Emergency Update, in the aftermath of the Brexit Referendum, we are convinced
that current market levels reflect a new reality and are not simply a further example of
extreme market volatility.

The changes are large enough that an update is necessary to ensure that our
model is compatible with current market conditions. The effects are visible in the level
of expectations and asset allocations. They will also provide a better reference point
for future updates.


Empowering inspiration

Risk-rated multi-asset portfolios' level and variability of returns are critically important. Getting the asset allocation right is the key driver of both. So much so that 90% of investment returns depend on the right asset allocation.

Our optimised strategic multi-asset allocations are grounded in robust and academically tested investment beliefs. Our asset model has delivered consistent and market-resilient asset allocations to our clients for over a decade.

Find out more in our feature articles, Investing for the long-haul and Why Longer Investment Horizons Influence Asset Allocations.


So what next?

Have you been looking for innovative ways of enhancing your in-house analysis capabilities? If so, it would be great to have the opportunity to talk you through the new EV Asset Allocation Research.

The quarterly research pack offers a range of financial market insights, including

  • Reliable, independent and model-driven Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs)
  • Forecasts for a broad range of economic indicators and investment markets
  • High-level, risk-targeted Strategic Asset Allocations (SAAs)
  • Unique market perspectives, commentary and insights
  • Book a discovery call with one of our experts to find out more.
EV Quarterly Asset Allocation Research (1)
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